Forex: AUD/USD hovering over 1.0350

The Aussie dollar is hovering over the mid 1.3000s on Thursday, grinding lower in a context dominated by the risk aversion so far.
In the data space, Australian Consumer Expectations for the month of February rose 2.2%, exceeding the previous print at 2.0%.

More news from that part of the world signals that the BoJ left intact its monetary policy, with rates at 0.00-0.10% and the asset purchase programme unchanged.

At the moment, the cross is down 0.19% at 1.0349 with the next support at 1.0315 (MA20d) followed by 1.0303 (hourly high Feb11) and then 1.0293 (hourly high/lows Feb.1).
On the upside, a breakout of 1.0362 (high Feb.13) would open the door to 1.0400 (high Feb.6) and then 1.0408 (MA100d).

Feb 14, 2013

Forex Flash: EUR/USD hits suggested rebound, targets 1.3270/55 - Commerzbank

According to Commerzbank analysts, the intraday Elliott wave count suggested that the rebound should terminate circa 1.3518 (50% retracement of the recent sell off). Such movement has already been seen, which now means the EUR/USD should get back down and target 1.3270/55 (16th Jan low and the 61.8% retracement and 3 month support line), "This is likely to hold the initial test – a break will target the more important 1.3164 7 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the up move completely", wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing only to recovery above 1.3570 to neutralize the immediate outlook and potentially re-target the 1.3711 February high.

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Feb 14, 2013

Forex Flash: Thoughts on the great Rotation – BBH

Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that reports indicating that Americans have invested more in equity funds here in 2013 than they did all last year have given rise to talk of the "Great Rotation". He feels that the idea is that Americans are selling fixed income investments bought during the financial crisis and are buying shares.

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