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29 May 2015
Japan: Renewed acceleration in 2015 H2 - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - The Japan Economics Team at Nomura concludes that growth should accelerate during the second semester of 2015.
Key Quotes
"Japan’s first set of preliminary estimates for 2015 Q1 real GDP came in at +2.4% q-q annualized, well above the market consensus of +1.6% (Bloomberg survey median) and our estimate (-0.3%). Looking at the details of the divergence from our prior estimate, there were large disparities between actual figures and our estimates for growth in distribution inventories and private-sector consumption."
"The substantial increase in the contribution of distribution inventories to the growth rate suggests a possible correction in inventories from here on, which could weigh on the growth rate in Q2. With private-sector consumption, we think the emphasis placed in the estimates on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey means that the figure may well have been higher than consistent with the underlying position."
"We look for the economy to see gradual recovery in Q2, but we expect the real GDP growth rate to slow a little compared with Q1. We expect the recovery to get onto a solider growth track in H2, supported by firming in the demand categories of private- sector consumption, private-sector capex, public investment, and exports from Q3."
Key Quotes
"Japan’s first set of preliminary estimates for 2015 Q1 real GDP came in at +2.4% q-q annualized, well above the market consensus of +1.6% (Bloomberg survey median) and our estimate (-0.3%). Looking at the details of the divergence from our prior estimate, there were large disparities between actual figures and our estimates for growth in distribution inventories and private-sector consumption."
"The substantial increase in the contribution of distribution inventories to the growth rate suggests a possible correction in inventories from here on, which could weigh on the growth rate in Q2. With private-sector consumption, we think the emphasis placed in the estimates on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey means that the figure may well have been higher than consistent with the underlying position."
"We look for the economy to see gradual recovery in Q2, but we expect the real GDP growth rate to slow a little compared with Q1. We expect the recovery to get onto a solider growth track in H2, supported by firming in the demand categories of private- sector consumption, private-sector capex, public investment, and exports from Q3."