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29 May 2015
CAD weakness overdone? – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at Societe Generale Sebastien Galy argued that the bearish trend in CAD could be overdone.
Key Quotes
“Canada’s Q1 was indeed horrendous led by an oil related drop in investments”.
“Growth was revised lower while consumption was shockingly weak”.
“This should revise the Canada bear camp given the high degree of consumer debt in Canada”.
“The potential depth of a correction in Calgary’s and Toronto’s housing market will be a clue to this factor”.
“More importantly, the US business cycle and oil are likely to be the drivers, bearish scenarios on both would be a double hammer for the CAD”.
“The more probable scenario is that the bearish Canadian case is overdone with CAD at long-term fair values and easy BoC policy”.
Key Quotes
“Canada’s Q1 was indeed horrendous led by an oil related drop in investments”.
“Growth was revised lower while consumption was shockingly weak”.
“This should revise the Canada bear camp given the high degree of consumer debt in Canada”.
“The potential depth of a correction in Calgary’s and Toronto’s housing market will be a clue to this factor”.
“More importantly, the US business cycle and oil are likely to be the drivers, bearish scenarios on both would be a double hammer for the CAD”.
“The more probable scenario is that the bearish Canadian case is overdone with CAD at long-term fair values and easy BoC policy”.