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10 Dec 2015
AUD/USD: options pricing AUD downside risk - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained that the AUD is outperforming with a 1.0% gain following the release of remarkable employment data given the 71.4K jobs created in November—all the more impressive as the data follow on the October jump of 56.1K.
Key Quotes:
"The combined two month surge is the largest since 1988 and the improvement in labor markets has served to further reduce expectations for RBA easing, with OIS now pricing in only 6.5bpts of easing over the next 12 months.
OIS had priced 34bpts of easing as recently as late October, and the subsequent turn has largely resulted from an RBA tone that has acknowledged an improvement in the domestic outlook.
We remain somewhat concerned about AUD’s rally in the face of a continued deterioration in the country’s terms of trade, as iron ore prices reach fresh lows under $40/tonne.
Options prices suggest a rise in demand for protection against downside risk in AUD, a divergence that demands attention given the signals and currency performance recently observed in JPY."
Key Quotes:
"The combined two month surge is the largest since 1988 and the improvement in labor markets has served to further reduce expectations for RBA easing, with OIS now pricing in only 6.5bpts of easing over the next 12 months.
OIS had priced 34bpts of easing as recently as late October, and the subsequent turn has largely resulted from an RBA tone that has acknowledged an improvement in the domestic outlook.
We remain somewhat concerned about AUD’s rally in the face of a continued deterioration in the country’s terms of trade, as iron ore prices reach fresh lows under $40/tonne.
Options prices suggest a rise in demand for protection against downside risk in AUD, a divergence that demands attention given the signals and currency performance recently observed in JPY."