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22 Feb 2016
US presidential election is drawing international attention - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US presidential election is also increasingly drawing international attention.
Key Quotes
“The success of Trump was first looked upon as a spectacle, but investors are becoming more anxious. He is leading in the rest of the states that have primaries or caucuses. However, it does not yet appear to have impacted investment decisions, but could if the party does not begin coalescing around a more moderate candidate. Investors may find some consolation in the event markets that show diminishing chances that Trump secures the Republican nomination.
Despite the flawed nature of her candidacy, Clinton is still is likely to secure the Democratic nomination and also the presidency. Super Tuesday (on March 1, when there are 10 primaries), we expect Clinton’s superior organization and funds as well as her moderate message to demonstrate why event markets regard her as the odds-on favorite.
There is some interest in the possible candidacy of Michael Bloomberg. Due to the complexity of the process, a decision will have to be made prior to the Republican and Democratic Conventions this summer. There are reports that he will announce his decision next month. The event markets strongly (85%) do not expect him to run.”
Key Quotes
“The success of Trump was first looked upon as a spectacle, but investors are becoming more anxious. He is leading in the rest of the states that have primaries or caucuses. However, it does not yet appear to have impacted investment decisions, but could if the party does not begin coalescing around a more moderate candidate. Investors may find some consolation in the event markets that show diminishing chances that Trump secures the Republican nomination.
Despite the flawed nature of her candidacy, Clinton is still is likely to secure the Democratic nomination and also the presidency. Super Tuesday (on March 1, when there are 10 primaries), we expect Clinton’s superior organization and funds as well as her moderate message to demonstrate why event markets regard her as the odds-on favorite.
There is some interest in the possible candidacy of Michael Bloomberg. Due to the complexity of the process, a decision will have to be made prior to the Republican and Democratic Conventions this summer. There are reports that he will announce his decision next month. The event markets strongly (85%) do not expect him to run.”