Classic risk-off day in the markets - ANZ

The ANZ Research Team resumes Tuesday's market action, noting that we saw a classic risk-off day, with equities, GBP, and commodities selling off, while USD, Treasuries, gold, and volatility rebounded.

Key Quotes

Financial markets appear to have taken a more realistic view around the complexity and uncertainty characterising the global political background and associated impact on already lacklustre economic growth.

This suggests the tug-a-war between more central bank support and economic fundamentals is going to increase driving market volatility. There was no clear reason for the move overnight, but catalysts included the Asian equity sell-off carry through to the European session, another sombre economic update from BoE Governor Carney and three of the UK’s largest real estate funds freezing redemptions as investors try to exit.

All up, equites sold off around 1.7-1.8% in Europe. The FTSE 100 was the outlier, up 0.4%, likely due to market speculation about QE. In the US, the S&P 500 shed 0.9% and the VIX was up 10%.

Currency markets were also choppy with GBP depreciating 1.8%; EUR off 0.6%; AUD down 1% and NZD off 1.1%. JPY rallied 1% on risk-off flow. Commodities were led lower by a 5% fall in oil prices, while soft commodity prices were also under pressure as rain arrives in the US mid west.

US Treasuries rallied with yields bull flattening: 2 year yields were down 3bps; 5 year down 6bps; and 10 year 8bps lower. The market pricing for a Fed hike this year has fallen to only a 12% chance.