Nonfarm payrolls expectations - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their expectations for nonfarm payrolls.

Key Quotes:

"We expect the BLS to report a 205k increase in nonfarm payroll employment for January, with 200k from private employers and a 5k contribution from the government."

"We forecast a steady, 0.2% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings (2.6% y-o-y) with a higher-than-usual amount of uncertainty due to tax bill-related pay increases and changes to various states’ minimum wage laws. The momentum in the labor market, with consistent employment growth above that needed to absorb new labor market entrants, will likely bring the unemployment rate down 0.1pp to 4.0%."