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US Congress has passed legislation in recent months, which is likely to result in an expansion of fiscal policy at a time when the US economy is growing at an above-trend pace and close to full employment, explains the research team at ANZ.
Key Quotes
“If an economy hasn’t much spare capacity, then there is a limit to how fast the economy can sustainably grow. Any demand-side stimulus that attempts to push growth above potential will tend to spill over into higher inflation.”
“The March FOMC meeting will be critical to see how FOMC officials assess the impact of this fiscal stimulus on growth and inflation. If officials judge that the US economy has limited spare capacity and/or flexibility to accommodate this stimulus, they could respond with a more aggressive normalisation profile (steeper dot plot).”
“The fiscal stimulus is likely to result in higher longer-term rates and has the potential to heighten overall financial market volatility.”
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