EM central bank activity this week – BBH

Analysts at BBH noted the upcoming central banks’ meetings ahead in the week.

Key Quotes

“National Bank of Poland meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%. Inflation was 1.3% y/y in March, below the 1.5-3.5% target range. This supports the central bank’s intent to keep rates steady in 2018, but we are not convinced it can stand pat in 2019 as well. February trade and current account data will be reported Friday”.

“Peru central bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 2.75%. CPI rose 0.4% y/y in March, well below the 1-3% target range. We think the easing cycle remains intact, but the central bank will likely stick to its recent pattern of cutting every other month. Since it just cut 25 bp at the March meeting, we see the next cut in May”.

“Bank of Korea meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%. CPI rose 1.3% y/y in March, further below the 2% target. Given the building risks to global trade and regional growth, we think BOK will remain extra cautious on rates after starting the tightening cycle in November with a 25 bp hike. Market is looking for the next hike in Q3 but we think much will depend on global developments”.