AUD/USD: Ignores all odds to stay on the front-foot above 0.7100
- AUD/USD defies the pullback from 0.7167 while picking up the bids from 0.7155.
- RBA stood pat with policymakers citing global outlook as “highly uncertain”.
- Aussie Retail Sales gained on MoM but lagged quarterly, Trade Balance softened.
- US dollar failed to cheer upbeat Factory Orders as policy deadlock over stimulus continues.
AUD/USD carries the previous day’s upbeat performance while rising to 0.7160 at the start of Wednesday’s Australian session. The pair snapped a two-day losing streak on Tuesday while trading comfortably beyond 0.7100. Though, bulls are yet to cross 0.7200 mark to retake controls.
While upbeat data and position adjustments could be spotted for the aussie pair’s previous weakness, nothing has changed so far, which in turn makes the bulls cautious.
Talks over US aid plan, unemployment benefits in focus…
Except for the recent stabilization in the coronavirus (COVID-19) figures from the US and Victoria, coupled with mildly positive equities, there seem to be fewer catalysts portraying the market’s upbeat sentiment. On the contrary, sluggish data from Australia and the RBA’s dovish tone should ideally weigh on the quote. However, the US Senators’ inability to unveil details of the much-awaited stimulus plan is likely playing the background music for the AUD/USD price run-up.
The American Congress hasn’t yet offered any strong clues over the unemployment claims benefits that expired Friday, not to forget the policymakers’ failure to deliver a trillion-dollar worth aid package. As per the latest update, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi attacked President Donald Trump over his rejection of the Democratic Party’s proposal that delays the market relief. Even so, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and the White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows are meeting with the Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and are hopeful of a deal done by the weekend before they all go on a vacation.
Elsewhere, the US-China tussle is back in motion with the chatter over TikTok and pushing off the consulates. Recently, the Chinese ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said that Beijing does not want to see escalation following mutual consulate closures.
Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks managed to post gains below 1.0% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields stumbled to five-month lows near 0.50.8% before bouncing back to 0.512% by the end of Tuesday’s North American session.
Traders may now keep eyes on Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index and Commonwealth Bank Services PMI ahead of watching over Aussie housing market data and China’s Caixin Services PMI. However, major attention will be given to the US stimulus package, COVID-19 updates and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for near-term direction. Although the US dollar has started trading lower, any surprise positive will be enough to pull the greenback well above the two-year lows and weigh on the AUD/USD.
Technical analysis
FXStreet’s Rajan Dhall spots bearish divergence on the four-hour chart to suggest further hardships for the AUD/USD price upside.
The key feature on the chart is the Relative Strength Index divergence. This is when the price makes a higher high and the indicator makes a lower high. It indicates that the momentum of the move higher could be wearing thin. But the confirmation of the divergence is the break of the red support level at 0.7061. The MACD is showing signs of weakness as the histogram is red and the signal lines are still under the zero level.
Overall the pair is still in an uptrend. It is only wise to worry about the divergence if the red support level breaks to the downside. It would be hard to bet against the strength of this uptrend at the moment and if the psychological 0.72 area break it could be game on for the bulls.