Confirming you are not from the U.S. or the Philippines

Bằng cách đưa ra quyết định này, tôi tuyên bố rõ ràng và xác nhận rằng:
  • Tôi không phải là công dân hoặc cư dân Hoa Kỳ
  • Tôi không phải là cư dân của Philippines
  • Tôi không trực tiếp hoặc gián tiếp sở hữu hơn 10% cổ phần/quyền biểu quyết/lợi ích của cư dân Hoa Kỳ và/hoặc không kiểm soát công dân hoặc cư dân Hoa Kỳ bằng các phương thức khác
  • Tôi không thuộc quyền sở hữu trực tiếp hoặc gián tiếp hơn 10% cổ phần/quyền biểu quyết/lợi ích và/hoặc dưới sự kiểm soát của công dân hoặc cư dân Hoa Kỳ được thực hiện bằng các phương thức khác
  • Tôi không liên kết với công dân hoặc cư dân Hoa Kỳ theo Mục 1504(a) của FATCA
  • Tôi nhận thức được trách nhiệm của mình khi khai báo gian dối.
Theo mục đích của tuyên bố này, tất cả các quốc gia và vùng lãnh thổ phụ thuộc của Hoa Kỳ đều ngang bằng với lãnh thổ chính của Hoa Kỳ. Tôi cam kết bảo vệ và giữ cho Octa Markets Incorporated, giám đốc và cán bộ của công ty vô hại chống lại bất kỳ khiếu nại nào phát sinh từ hoặc liên quan đến bất kỳ hành vi vi phạm tuyên bố nào của tôi bằng văn bản này.
Chúng tôi trú trọng quyền riêng tư và bảo mật thông tin cá nhân của bạn. Chúng tôi chỉ thu thập email để cung cấp các ưu đãi đặc biệt và thông tin quan trọng về sản phẩm và dịch vụ của chúng tôi. Bằng cách gửi địa chỉ email của bạn, bạn đồng ý nhận những bức thư như vậy từ chúng tôi. Nếu bạn muốn hủy đăng ký hoặc có bất kỳ câu hỏi hoặc thắc mắc nào, hãy viết thư cho Hỗ trợ Khách hàng của chúng tôi.
Octa trading broker
Mở tài khoản giao dịch
Back

US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, higher but showing moderation

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday, February 10 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 10 major banks regarding the upcoming US inflation data. 

The CPI (YoY) is forecast to rise to 7.3% from 7% in December. Meanwhile, Core CPI is expected to rise to 5.9% from 5.5%.  

SocGen

“The current pace may not seem out of step, but the latest monthly increases are running at 0.4% MoM, which if sustained, would lift the YoY measure to 4.8%. Rents comprise about 30% of the CPI, so even modest moves factor heavily into overall inflation. Pre-COVID, rents running above 3% along with other service sector products running above 3% were offset by very weak pricing of hard goods such as autos and electronics. Moving back to that inflation environment does require more time.” 

NBF

“While the cost of food should have continued to rise at a rapid pace, we still expect the headline CPI index to increase at a slightly slower pace than in the prior month (+0.4% instead of +0.5%), weighed down by stagnating pump prices. If we’re right, the headline annual rate would climb three ticks to 7.3%, the highest since February 1982. Core prices, meanwhile, could have gained 0.5% MoM, supported by another healthy gain for shelter. On a 12-month basis, core inflation could jump to a 39-year high of 5.9%.”

RBC Economics 

“United States Headline CPI growth is expected mover higher to 7.3% YoY in January (0.4% MoM) with ex-food & energy price growth accelerating to 5.9% (0.4% MoM).”

Deutsche Bank

“We are projecting that monthly headline CPI growth will slow to +0.36% in January, with core inflation also slowing to +0.36%. However, this would still push YoY readings to 7.2% and 5.8% (consensus at 7.3% and 5.9%) respectively the highest since 1982 for both. There are plenty of wildcards in the release but we'll be watching rents/OER most as this makes up around 40% of core and around a third of the headline number. Since last summer it's been clear from our models that this was going to continue going up and up and given its weight it's very difficult for inflation to mean revert without it also doing so. It's showing no sign of this at the moment and likely won't for several months at least.”

ING

“US CPI is likely to see the headline rate hit 7.3% YoY (0.4% MoM), the highest rate since February 1982. The core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is expected to hit 5.9% (0.4%). It was last up here in October 1982. Inflation pressures are broad-based given robust demand in an environment of significant capacity constraints in both the goods and the services sectors of the economy.”

CIBC

“Total inflation is set to accelerate to 7.2%, while core inflation will reach 5.9%. We are a touch weaker than the consensus, which could be negative for bond yields and the greenback.” 

TDS

“The core, as well as the total index likely, slowed on an MoM basis, with the pace still fairly strong. Strength in used vehicles was probably partly offset by weakness in hotels and airfares. Our 0.4%/0.4% MoM total/core estimate is 0.36%/0.37% before rounding, so we see more risk of 0.3%/0.3% than 0.5%/0.5%. The consensus is looking for 0.4%/0.5%. Base effects will likely help boost the YoY readings in the CPI data. Our estimates imply 7.2%/5.8% YoY for total/core prices, up from 7.0%/5.5% in December. That is slightly below the 7.3%/5.9% consensus.”

Citibank

“January CPI MoM – Citi: 0.5%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.5%; CPI YoY – Citi: 7.3%, median: 7.3%, prior: 7.0%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.5%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.6%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 6.0%, median: 5.9%, prior: 5.5%. We expect a 0.51% MoM increase in core CPI in January, although with risks again likely on the upside. One source of uncertainty in January CPI though will be a reweighting of the CPI basket based on consumption data from 2019-2020.”

ANZ 

“We expect US core CPI to have risen by 0.3% MoM in January, a more modest outturn than recent months.”

Nordea

“We see headline inflation print at 7.4% while core inflation prints at 5.9%, which could translate into a small selloff in bonds, wobbly equities and a supported dollar.”

 

USD/CAD: Path over 1.3024 to trigger larger upside risks – DBS Bank

USD/CAD has been trapped in a 5% range corridor since September. The recent 1.2451 low is likely to be the start of another USD upleg, Benjamin Wong,
Đọc thêm Previous

EUR/USD to break below 1.14 on accelerated US inflation – ING

A stubbornly range-bound EUR/USD which has shown unresponsiveness to European Central Bank (ECB) speakers may break below 1.1400 today as another acce
Đọc thêm Next